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奧巴馬連任后改善對華關(guān)系的三大關(guān)鍵

奧巴馬連任后改善對華關(guān)系的三大關(guān)鍵

Nin-Hai Tseng 2012-11-09
美國大選已經(jīng)落幕,奧巴馬如愿以償,,贏得連任,。接下來,,美國該如何與中國這個世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體相處?奧巴馬需要處理好三個問題,。

????此次美國總統(tǒng)大選中,,美國兩黨候選人米特?羅姆尼和巴拉克?奧巴馬都大肆指責(zé)中國,,從匯率操縱國到不公平貿(mào)易問題,不一而足,。如今隨著大選落幕,美國該如何與中國這個世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體相處呢,?既然中美兩國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的相互依賴性日益加深,,關(guān)系融洽總比劍拔弩張要強(qiáng)。本文作者建議美國不妨從下述三方面著手,,建立良好的對華關(guān)系:

解決美國的財政困境

????美國的聯(lián)邦預(yù)算赤字已連續(xù)四年超過萬億美元大關(guān),。這么高的赤字水平不僅讓美國企業(yè)界感到不安,也讓希望在美國多做點生意的中國投資者躑躅,。

????去年,,受各方面政治角力的制約,奧巴馬未能帶領(lǐng)美國擺脫財政困境,。如今大選已經(jīng)結(jié)束,,他必須再次嘗試。除非分裂的美國國會能夠很快達(dá)成一項削減預(yù)算赤字的方案,,否則從明年1月1日起,,美國必須削減政府支出約6,000億美元,還可能實施加稅政策。這些措施可能會把美國經(jīng)濟(jì)再次推入衰退,。

????這樣的不確定性妨礙了美國企業(yè)擴(kuò)大招聘規(guī)模和投資規(guī)模,。雖然我們從中國人那里聽到的說法不多,但這對他們也是利益攸關(guān),,布魯金斯學(xué)會(Brookings Instituion)高級研究員李侃如稱:“中國在美國經(jīng)濟(jì)中有大量的投資,。”

????中國仍是美國的主要債權(quán)人,,持有1.15萬億美元的美國國債,。這一數(shù)額超過其他任何國家。倒不是說如果美國短期內(nèi)不達(dá)成削減赤字的方案,,中國人就會立馬停止購買美國國債,,但肯定會讓中國投資者三思。過去幾年,,中國對美投資穩(wěn)步增長:2012年前10個月,,投資總額已達(dá)63億美元,顯著高于2011年的45億美元,。

????如果奧巴馬想讓這些來自世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體的投資者繼續(xù)向美國投資,,就得推動分裂的美國國會達(dá)成一致,讓這個國家走上更健康的財政道路,。

跟中國新一屆領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人搞好關(guān)系

????隨著美國奧巴馬總統(tǒng)贏得連任,,中國也將迎來新一屆領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人。但中國將根據(jù)完全不同的政治流程選舉新一屆領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人,。

????大多數(shù)人,,包括絕大多數(shù)中國人,都不確定未來會怎樣,。

????雖然美國總統(tǒng)不能左右中國選擇什么樣的道路,,但奧巴馬仍然有機(jī)會與中國新一屆領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人商定新的基調(diào)。

????“美國和中國事實上都不怎么信任對方的長期打算,,這種不信任很大程度上是迫于無奈,,”華盛頓布魯金斯學(xué)會高級研究員李侃如表示。我們還記得,,此次美國大選的一大特色就是強(qiáng)硬的對華言論,。兩位候選人在競選期間可能都批評過中國操縱匯率、不公平貿(mào)易等等問題,,但當(dāng)選后的奧巴馬必須小心處理這些話題,。任何過于苛責(zé)或咄咄逼人的做法都可能導(dǎo)致中國新一屆領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人更激烈的回?fù)簟Ec奧巴馬不同,,中國新一屆領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人還需要建立自身的政治影響力,。

不要再舉棋不定

????中國人希望在美國擴(kuò)大投資,,這一點很清楚。但美國似乎并不總是希望獲得投資,。于是,,中國投資者得到的信號就忽左忽右。

????最近,,中國似乎成了華盛頓的活靶子,。在這方面,奧巴馬或許比羅姆尼還好點,,但“中國威脅論”加劇了中國人的擔(dān)憂——美國可能正在疏遠(yuǎn)中國,,避免跟中國有更多生意上的往來。

????During the U.S. presidential campaign, both Mitt Romney and Barack Obama piled on criticisms of China – from being a currency manipulator to playing unfairly in the way it trades with the U.S. and other economies. Now that the race is behind us, how should the U.S. approach China, the world's second-largest economy? A stronger relationship is better than a strained one, given that the two economies depend more and more on each other to grow. Here are three ways the U.S. can begin to cultivate the bond.

Resolve America's fiscal woes?

????The U.S. federal budget deficit surpassed $1 trillion for four years in a row – a level that not only unnerves executives across corporate America, but also Chinese investors looking to do more business in the U.S.

????Last year, Obama wasn't able to lead the nation out of its fiscal woes amid all the political wrangling. Now that the election is over, he will have to try again. Unless a divided Congress can quickly reach a deal to reduce the deficit, about $600 billion in government spending cuts and higher taxes threaten to kick in on Jan. 1 and possibly push the U.S. economy back into recession.

????The uncertainty has stalled U.S. businesses from hiring and investing more. Though we've heard less from the Chinese, they have plenty at stake as well, says Ken Lieberthal, senior fellow at the Brookings Instituion. "The Chinese are heavily invested in the U.S. economy."

????China remains a major lender to the U.S., owning $1.15 trillion of its government debt. That's more than any other country. It's not as if the Chinese will suddenly stop buying U.S. debt if a deficit deal isn't struck immediately, but it could certainly make investors from the Far East think twice. Chinese investments into the U.S. have steadily risen over the past several years: With about two months left in 2012, it has totaled $6.3 billion, higher than the $4.5 billion in 2011.

????And so if Obama wants investors from the world's second largest economy to continue investing in the U.S., the president will somehow need to bring a split Congress together and put the nation on a healthier fiscal path.

Make nice with China's new leaders?

????As the U.S. starts another term under President Obama, China will also begin a new chapter of its own. China, however, will take on new leaders under a far different political process.

????Most, including the vast majority of Chinese, aren't certain what to expect.

????While the U.S. president will have little control over China's path, Obama will have an opportunity to set a new tone with the new leadership.

????"The U.S. and China really don't trust each other's long-term intensions and that distrust is very coercive," says Ken Lieberthal, senior fellow at Brookings Institution, a Washington DC-based think tank. As we recall, the U.S. presidential race was marked by get-tough on China talks. But while the candidates might have pressed China over currency manipulation and other issues over unfair trade practices, Obama will have to approach those topics delicately. Anything too punitive or aggressive could prompt China's new leaders to strike back harder, as unlike Obama, they will be trying to establish themselves politically.

Quit with those mixed signals

????It's clear the Chinese want to invest more in the U.S. But the U.S. doesn't always seem to want that. Which only leaves Chinese investors with mixed signals.

????Lately, China seemed to be all but a punching bag in Washington. Perhaps less so for Obama than Romney, but the 'fear China' rhetoric has aggravated Chinese concerns that the U.S. is distancing away from doing more business with China.

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