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谷歌新品提前泄密背后的真相

谷歌新品提前泄密背后的真相

Miguel Helft 2012-10-25
上周,,谷歌第三季度財(cái)報(bào)提前泄密。這份財(cái)報(bào)令人失望,,導(dǎo)致谷歌股價(jià)大跌,。然而,,它并非搜索巨頭谷歌唯一的疏忽,。谷歌在Chromebook新款筆記本的發(fā)布上再次出現(xiàn)烏龍。

????聽說谷歌(Google)提早發(fā)布的聲明了嗎?不,,我說的不是10月19日上午比預(yù)期提前幾個(gè)小時(shí)發(fā)布的財(cái)報(bào),。這次泄密使谷歌股價(jià)立遭重挫,截至納斯達(dá)克收市時(shí)已下跌了9%,。

????谷歌在周四又出了一次時(shí)間上紕漏,。那天,我正坐在位于舊金山的谷歌辦公室里,,聽著該公司新產(chǎn)品Chromebook筆記本電腦的演示會(huì),。這款產(chǎn)品原本計(jì)劃于當(dāng)日晚些時(shí)候推出。但是,,我在谷歌搜索欄中輸入“Chromebook”,,結(jié)果顯示的第一個(gè)搜索結(jié)果居然就是這個(gè)仍處于保密階段的產(chǎn)品頁面。天哪!

????我之所以提到Chromebook的發(fā)布會(huì),,是因?yàn)槲覀兓蛟S能借此正確地分析出谷歌提前發(fā)布這份令人失望的財(cái)報(bào)背后的原因,。Chromebook在一年多前首次銷售時(shí)就成績(jī)平平。這種電腦的功能有限,,而且缺乏完善的操作系統(tǒng),,充其量只是一個(gè)增強(qiáng)版的網(wǎng)頁瀏覽器,只能在有Wifi信號(hào)的區(qū)域使用,。

????而三星(Samsung)Chromebook這款新產(chǎn)品看起來則有點(diǎn)像一本“超級(jí)書冊(cè)”,。它輕便(2.5磅),超?。?.8英寸),,有很長(zhǎng)的電池續(xù)航時(shí)間(6.5小時(shí)),還可以免費(fèi)使用100GB的谷歌在線云存儲(chǔ),,播放1080p的高清視頻,。最棒的是,它的售價(jià)僅為249美元,。這一切都比早期那個(gè)又大又笨重,、售價(jià)至少349美元的版本更有吸引力。谷歌Chrome的高級(jí)副總裁桑達(dá)?皮采認(rèn)為,,這個(gè)價(jià)位能讓一般家庭將它作為一臺(tái)額外的家庭電腦來使用,。比如在廚房放上一臺(tái),或是給孩子買上一臺(tái),。皮采說:“我們真的希望這款產(chǎn)品能適合家庭中的每個(gè)成員使用,。”

????沒人能保證周一上市的全新Chromebook能夠大賣,。不過與那些使用最新微軟(Microsoft)Windows系統(tǒng),、而且更加昂貴的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手相比,這款產(chǎn)品勢(shì)必更受矚目,。我覺得,,谷歌開發(fā)Chromebook的初衷——發(fā)明一臺(tái)能聯(lián)網(wǎng)、而且不需要軟件升級(jí)和管理的計(jì)算機(jī),,是谷歌長(zhǎng)期致力于科技研發(fā)的一個(gè)象征,。Chromebook的研發(fā)始于2009年,當(dāng)時(shí)谷歌首次發(fā)布了Chrome OS操作系統(tǒng),。如今谷歌將賭注加倍,,策劃出這款新產(chǎn)品的營(yíng)銷計(jì)劃。消費(fèi)者能在500家百思買(Best Buy)門店,、亞馬遜網(wǎng)上商城(Amazon.com)和谷歌在線商店(Google’s Play store)買到這款產(chǎn)品,。

????盡管谷歌不是所有的長(zhǎng)期努力都獲得了成功,,但重要的是,谷歌還擁有YouTube,、谷歌地圖,、Chrome瀏覽器和安卓(Android)系統(tǒng)。它們彌補(bǔ)了谷歌偶爾的失敗,,并讓谷歌多年來一直都走在科技領(lǐng)域的最前沿,。

????當(dāng)然,如果谷歌掙錢的能力開始下降,,這一切都只能成為蒼白的粉飾,。再讓我們回頭來看看那份令人失望的財(cái)報(bào)。銷售額低于分析師的預(yù)期,。(谷歌向來不提供對(duì)自身的預(yù)估,。)利潤(rùn)開始下降。和一年前相比,,廣告商為每次廣告點(diǎn)擊所支付的費(fèi)用下降了15%,,這讓投資者們感到十分恐慌。使用移動(dòng)設(shè)備進(jìn)行搜索所產(chǎn)生的利潤(rùn)也不如使用個(gè)人電腦搜索帶來的利潤(rùn)高,,這一點(diǎn)則加劇了投資者們的恐慌,。

????周二,谷歌在亞利桑那州召開了Zeitgeist年會(huì),,我借此機(jī)會(huì)向谷歌CEO佩奇提出了這個(gè)問題,,下面是他回答的要點(diǎn)。

????佩奇說:“人們希望能夠隨時(shí)隨地使用電腦,,這個(gè)需求能給我們提供很多機(jī)遇,。我認(rèn)為,,貨幣化將會(huì)加速,,會(huì)產(chǎn)生更多的機(jī)遇,我們的產(chǎn)品也將更好地為人類服務(wù),。我認(rèn)為谷歌非常明白這個(gè)道理,,因此這對(duì)我們而言是件好事,而不是障礙,?!彼€說:“人們?cè)诮?jīng)歷這些變化時(shí)可能會(huì)遇到一些困難,不過我們開發(fā)的許多產(chǎn)品在智能手機(jī)上都運(yùn)行得非常好,?!保ㄔ谥芩呐c財(cái)務(wù)分析師的電話中,佩奇給出了類似的回答,。)

????Did you hear about Google's premature announcement? No, not the mid-morning earnings release, hours ahead of schedule, which sent Google shares plummeting 9% before trading had to be halted on the Nasdaq.

????On Thursday Google (GOOG) suffered from another untimely leak. As I sat inside Google's San Francisco office listening to a presentation on the company's new Chromebook laptop, which was to be publicly unveiled later in the day, I googled "Chromebook" and the first result that came up was the product page for the still secret device. Oops.

????The reason I mention the Chromebook announcement is that it may help put Google's early and disappointing earnings announcement in perspective. Chromebooks, which first began selling a little over a year ago, have hardly been a success. They have limited capabilities, and since they don't run a full-fledged operating system, but rather a sort of Web browser on steroids, they are meant to be used within range of a Wifi connection.

????But the new Samsung Chromebook, as this device is called, looks a bit like an "ultra-book." It is elegant, light (2.5 pounds), thin (0.8 inches) and is said to have a long battery life (6.5 hours). It comes with 100GB of free cloud storage on Google Drive and runs 1080p video. Best of all, it is priced at just $249. All that makes it far more attractive than earlier, bulkier models, whose prices started at $349 and up. Sundar Pichai, senior vice president of Chrome at Google, said the pricing would allow families to use them as extra machines to have around the house. Leave one in the kitchen, perhaps, or hand one to the kids. "We really want this to be for everyone in the family," Pichai said.

????There is no guarantee that the new Chromebook, which goes on sale Monday, will be a hit. But it's bound to look attractive when compared to competing devices running new versions of Microsoft (MSFT) Windows, which will be more expensive. And more to my point, the whole Chromebook initiative -- creating a Web-connected computer that requires no software upgrades or management -- is emblematic of the kind of long-term technology bet Google is known for. The Chromebook effort began in 2009, when Google first announced the Chrome OS operating system. Now the company is doubling down on that bet, planning a marketing campaign to promote the new machine, which will be available at 500 Best Buys (BBY), and online on Amazon.com (AMZN) and Google's Play store.

????Not all of Google's long-term bets have been successful. But what matters is that those that have - YouTube, Maps, the Chrome browser and Android, for example -- have more than compensated for the duds, and they have kept Google at the forefront of the tech industry for years.

????Of course, all that would turn into window dressing if Google's ability to make money starts to sputter. And that brings me back to the disappointing earnings report. Sales missed analysts' projections. (Google has a practice of not providing its own forecasts.) Profit was down. Investors were especially rattled by the fact that the price that advertisers pay for every click dropped 15%, compared to a year earlier. That heightened persistent fears among investors that search on mobile devices may not be as profitable as on PCs.

????On Tuesday, at Google's Zeitgeist conference in Arizona, I had the opportunity to ask Page precisely that question. Here's are the salient points of he made.

????"There is so much opportunity based on always having a computer with you knowing where it is," Page said. "I think monetization is going to go up. Opportunities are going to go up, products are going to work better for people. I think Google is pretty good at understanding that, so I think that's a benefit to us, not a hindrance." He added: "There will be some disruption as people go through those changes. But a lot of the things we do work great on a smartphone." (Page gave similar answers on Thursday during a call with financial analysts.)

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