????當(dāng)年，奧巴馬首次當(dāng)選美國(guó)總統(tǒng)可謂轟動(dòng)一時(shí),，他不僅拯救了美國(guó)汽車(chē)行業(yè),，穩(wěn)定了風(fēng)雨飄搖的華爾街，并且提出一系列大規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激方案,，把美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)從崩潰的邊緣拉了回來(lái),。如果奧巴馬能再次當(dāng)選，這些經(jīng)歷或許會(huì)對(duì)他有所幫助,。因?yàn)?，他將?huì)面臨一大堆政策沖擊，也就是所謂的財(cái)政懸崖,，這些政策沖擊甚至都不用等到他再次當(dāng)選就會(huì)來(lái)臨,。

????潛在的危機(jī)是，美國(guó)聯(lián)邦政府政治圈子的形成,。去年,，國(guó)會(huì)削減赤字協(xié)議的談判破裂，之后雙方都在期待形成這樣一個(gè)圈子,。但與去年夏天因債務(wù)上限引發(fā)的沖突不同,，當(dāng)時(shí)一小部分眾議院共和黨人愿意美國(guó)違約，以強(qiáng)制進(jìn)一步深化削減開(kāi)支,，而現(xiàn)在政府則是占據(jù)了上風(fēng),。這一次，共和黨人成了請(qǐng)?jiān)刚?，他們呼吁避免?duì)家庭收入250,000美元以上階層增收收入所得稅,，并呼吁反對(duì)預(yù)定的國(guó)防開(kāi)支削減方案。

????而美國(guó)總統(tǒng)則把共和黨人的請(qǐng)求看成一個(gè)機(jī)會(huì),，希望解決一些長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)存在的問(wèn)題,。奧巴馬希望利用自己的影響力完成三件事：徹底的赤字削減協(xié)議；一項(xiàng)大規(guī)?；A(chǔ)設(shè)施投資和其他支出,，為經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇增添動(dòng)力；另外一個(gè)就是簡(jiǎn)化,、改革美國(guó)稅法,。

????“人們需要明白，這是一個(gè)機(jī)會(huì),，”在狹小的白宮西廂辦公室內(nèi),，奧巴馬高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問(wèn)吉恩?斯珀林一邊對(duì)我說(shuō)，一邊大口嚼著從自動(dòng)售貨機(jī)里買(mǎi)的脆谷樂(lè)（Cheerios）,。（白宮允許個(gè)別高級(jí)助理接受采訪,，但不包括總統(tǒng)本人。）“從歷史記錄來(lái)看,，當(dāng)所有人都感覺(jué),，財(cái)政問(wèn)題的緊迫性就像有一只手槍頂在自己腦門(mén)上時(shí),，大規(guī)模預(yù)算協(xié)議就會(huì)獲得通過(guò)?！?/p>

????奧巴馬的首要任務(wù)應(yīng)該是制定一個(gè)長(zhǎng)期計(jì)劃,，阻止聯(lián)邦政府的赤字趨勢(shì)。美國(guó)政府希望在未來(lái)十年內(nèi)削減赤字4萬(wàn)億美元,，而要實(shí)現(xiàn)這個(gè)目標(biāo),，主要通過(guò)對(duì)高收入人群增稅獲得的1.5萬(wàn)億美元新收入，以及封堵稅法漏洞,。但奧巴馬總統(tǒng)到底會(huì)采取哪種方式擠壓應(yīng)享權(quán)益開(kāi)支,，目前仍然存在疑問(wèn)。去年夏天,，奧巴馬對(duì)共和黨做出讓步,，比如提高聯(lián)邦醫(yī)療保險(xiǎn)的法定年齡，以及回籠社保收益等,。如今奧巴馬輕易擺脫了這些妥協(xié)措施,。相反，在最近提出的預(yù)算中,，他提出要控制醫(yī)保開(kāi)支的增長(zhǎng),，則需減少對(duì)供應(yīng)商的支出。但白宮經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問(wèn)認(rèn)為,，不論最終采取哪種形式,，這樣一份協(xié)議都會(huì)給公司帶來(lái)足夠的信心，啟動(dòng)新一輪招聘活動(dòng)和投資熱潮,。

????此外,，奧巴馬總統(tǒng)還在力推通過(guò)一系列雄心勃勃的開(kāi)支提案，其中包括4,470億美元的針對(duì)性減稅,，基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施開(kāi)支,，以及幫助各州和地方政府執(zhí)行所謂《美國(guó)就業(yè)法案》（American Jobs Act）等，這些將成為奧巴馬增加美國(guó)人就業(yè)計(jì)劃的核心,。去年九月,，奧巴馬公布法案時(shí)，獨(dú)立經(jīng)濟(jì)分析師預(yù)測(cè),，該法案可以提供190萬(wàn)個(gè)工作崗位,，并帶動(dòng)GDP增長(zhǎng)兩個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。奧巴馬決定貫徹這項(xiàng)法案表明他的作風(fēng)已經(jīng)開(kāi)始轉(zhuǎn)變,，也就是說(shuō)他開(kāi)始放棄妥協(xié)策略,，而是與共和黨展開(kāi)明刀明槍的對(duì)抗。

????去年夏天,，奧巴馬與共和黨糾纏不清,，把時(shí)間都花在了爭(zhēng)論財(cái)政緊縮的時(shí)間表上,。奧巴馬的助手稱(chēng)，總統(tǒng)為此感到非常沮喪,。針對(duì)債務(wù)協(xié)議的那些令人難以忍受的談判讓他感覺(jué)自己被忽視了,，因?yàn)檫@讓他無(wú)法在經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷時(shí)期重新關(guān)注就業(yè)問(wèn)題。為了給疲弱的經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)提供動(dòng)力,，奧巴馬的團(tuán)隊(duì)提出了新的提案，在這個(gè)過(guò)程中,，奧巴馬告訴他們“不要閉門(mén)造車(chē)”,。他的意思是：不要預(yù)先設(shè)想折中方案，以便贏得共和黨的支持,，就像他們對(duì)第一次刺激方案的那種支持,。七月底，奧巴馬總統(tǒng)與眾議院議長(zhǎng)約翰?貝納的談判破裂后,，他便一頭扎到確定新法案詳細(xì)內(nèi)容的過(guò)程當(dāng)中,。斯珀林說(shuō)：“說(shuō)奧巴馬總統(tǒng)有一種強(qiáng)烈的、被壓抑的,、解決就業(yè)問(wèn)題的愿望,，其實(shí)還是低估他了。其實(shí),，他已經(jīng)徹底爆發(fā)了,。”

????九月份,，奧巴馬在國(guó)會(huì)聯(lián)席會(huì)議上提出了一攬子計(jì)劃,，并在美國(guó)四處游說(shuō)，希望獲得支持,，但除了減少了2%的工資稅和增加失業(yè)津貼外,，國(guó)會(huì)山?jīng)]有做出其他任何讓步。現(xiàn)在,，白宮相信,，在預(yù)算談判中，白宮的提案有機(jī)會(huì)起死回生,。

????譯者：劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

????President Obama started his first term with a bang, simultaneously engineering an auto industry rescue, stabilizing a teetering Wall Street, and negotiating a massive stimulus package to wrench the economy back from the brink. The experience may be useful if he is reelected. That's because he'll face the pileup of policy shocks known as the fiscal cliff even before he can be sworn in again.

????The looming crisis is a Beltway creation that both sides have anticipated since last year, when congressional negotiations toward a deficit-cutting accord imploded. But unlike last summer's clash over the debt ceiling, when a faction of House Republicans was willing to let the U.S. default in order to force deeper spending cuts, the administration now has the upper hand. This time around, Republicans are the petitioners, eager to avert both a tax increase on income above $250,000 and scheduled cuts to defense spending.

????And the President is looking to use the challenge as a chance to tackle long-standing problems. Obama wants to apply his leverage to accomplish three things: a sweeping deficit-reduction agreement, a major investment in infrastructure and other spending to give the economic recovery a jolt, and a simplifying rewrite of our tax code.

????"People need to understand this can be an opportunity," Gene Sperling, the President's top economic adviser, tells me as he munches vending-machine Cheerios in his cramped West Wing office. (The White House made several senior aides available for interviews, but not the President.) "Historically, major budget agreements have often taken place when everyone felt there was a fiscal gun to their heads."

????Obama's first priority will be a long-term plan for stemming the federal government's tide of red ink. The administration hopes to secure $4 trillion in deficit reduction over the next decade, in part by raising $1.5 trillion in new revenue from higher taxes on upper incomes and closing loopholes in the tax code. But exactly how the President would squeeze entitlement spending remains an open question. Obama has walked away from concessions he offered the GOP last summer, including raising the eligibility age for Medicare and ratcheting back Social Security benefits. Instead, in his most recent budget, he proposes saving on health care programs mostly by cutting payments to providers. Whatever its final shape, however, such a deal alone would give business enough confidence to unleash a wave of hiring and investment, White House economic advisers argue.

????The President will also be pushing for passage of an ambitious set of spending proposals -- based on a $447 billion package of targeted tax cuts, infrastructure spending, and aid to state and local governments dubbed the American Jobs Act -- that remains the backbone of his plan to put people back to work. When Obama unveiled the bill last September, independent economic analysts predicted it could supply up to 1.9 million jobs and add two points to the GDP. The decision to pursue it marked an inflection in his presidency -- the moment he abandoned a strategy of accommodation in favor of what he viewed as a clarifying confrontation with Republicans.

????Obama had spent the previous summer tangling with the GOP over its austerity agenda. It was frustrating for the President, aides say. He felt diminished by the grinding talks toward a debt agreement because they prevented him from getting back on a jobs message as the economy stumbled. As his team worked behind the scenes crafting new proposals to prop up the flagging recovery, Obama told them not to "self-edit." The message: Don't pre-negotiate compromises to entice Republican support, as they had on the first stimulus. When the President's talks with House Speaker John Boehner finally fell apart in late July, he dived into the process of finalizing the details of the new bill. "The notion that the President had a heavy pent-up demand to get out there on jobs was an understatement. He was fired up," Sperling says.

????Obama unveiled the package to a joint session of Congress in September, then barnstormed the country in support of it, but aside from extensions of the 2% payroll tax cut and unemployment benefits, it didn't budge on Capitol Hill. The White House now believes it will have a chance to revive his proposals in the budget negotiations.