????當(dāng)年,，奧巴馬首次當(dāng)選美國總統(tǒng)可謂轟動一時，他不僅拯救了美國汽車行業(yè),，穩(wěn)定了風(fēng)雨飄搖的華爾街,，并且提出一系列大規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激方案，把美國經(jīng)濟(jì)從崩潰的邊緣拉了回來,。如果奧巴馬能再次當(dāng)選,，這些經(jīng)歷或許會對他有所幫助。因?yàn)?，他將會面臨一大堆政策沖擊,，也就是所謂的財(cái)政懸崖，這些政策沖擊甚至都不用等到他再次當(dāng)選就會來臨,。

????潛在的危機(jī)是,，美國聯(lián)邦政府政治圈子的形成。去年,，國會削減赤字協(xié)議的談判破裂,，之后雙方都在期待形成這樣一個圈子。但與去年夏天因債務(wù)上限引發(fā)的沖突不同,，當(dāng)時一小部分眾議院共和黨人愿意美國違約,，以強(qiáng)制進(jìn)一步深化削減開支，而現(xiàn)在政府則是占據(jù)了上風(fēng),。這一次,，共和黨人成了請?jiān)刚撸麄兒粲醣苊鈱彝ナ杖?50,000美元以上階層增收收入所得稅,，并呼吁反對預(yù)定的國防開支削減方案,。

????而美國總統(tǒng)則把共和黨人的請求看成一個機(jī)會，希望解決一些長期以來存在的問題,。奧巴馬希望利用自己的影響力完成三件事：徹底的赤字削減協(xié)議,；一項(xiàng)大規(guī)模基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資和其他支出,，為經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇增添動力,；另外一個就是簡化,、改革美國稅法。

????“人們需要明白,，這是一個機(jī)會,，”在狹小的白宮西廂辦公室內(nèi)，奧巴馬高級經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問吉恩?斯珀林一邊對我說,，一邊大口嚼著從自動售貨機(jī)里買的脆谷樂（Cheerios）,。（白宮允許個別高級助理接受采訪，但不包括總統(tǒng)本人,。）“從歷史記錄來看,，當(dāng)所有人都感覺，財(cái)政問題的緊迫性就像有一只手槍頂在自己腦門上時,，大規(guī)模預(yù)算協(xié)議就會獲得通過,。”

????奧巴馬的首要任務(wù)應(yīng)該是制定一個長期計(jì)劃,，阻止聯(lián)邦政府的赤字趨勢,。美國政府希望在未來十年內(nèi)削減赤字4萬億美元，而要實(shí)現(xiàn)這個目標(biāo),，主要通過對高收入人群增稅獲得的1.5萬億美元新收入,，以及封堵稅法漏洞。但奧巴馬總統(tǒng)到底會采取哪種方式擠壓應(yīng)享權(quán)益開支,，目前仍然存在疑問,。去年夏天，奧巴馬對共和黨做出讓步,，比如提高聯(lián)邦醫(yī)療保險的法定年齡,，以及回籠社保收益等。如今奧巴馬輕易擺脫了這些妥協(xié)措施,。相反,，在最近提出的預(yù)算中，他提出要控制醫(yī)保開支的增長,，則需減少對供應(yīng)商的支出,。但白宮經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問認(rèn)為，不論最終采取哪種形式,，這樣一份協(xié)議都會給公司帶來足夠的信心,，啟動新一輪招聘活動和投資熱潮。

????此外,，奧巴馬總統(tǒng)還在力推通過一系列雄心勃勃的開支提案,，其中包括4,470億美元的針對性減稅，基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施開支，以及幫助各州和地方政府執(zhí)行所謂《美國就業(yè)法案》（American Jobs Act）等,，這些將成為奧巴馬增加美國人就業(yè)計(jì)劃的核心,。去年九月，奧巴馬公布法案時,，獨(dú)立經(jīng)濟(jì)分析師預(yù)測,，該法案可以提供190萬個工作崗位，并帶動GDP增長兩個百分點(diǎn),。奧巴馬決定貫徹這項(xiàng)法案表明他的作風(fēng)已經(jīng)開始轉(zhuǎn)變,，也就是說他開始放棄妥協(xié)策略，而是與共和黨展開明刀明槍的對抗,。

????去年夏天，奧巴馬與共和黨糾纏不清,，把時間都花在了爭論財(cái)政緊縮的時間表上,。奧巴馬的助手稱，總統(tǒng)為此感到非常沮喪,。針對債務(wù)協(xié)議的那些令人難以忍受的談判讓他感覺自己被忽視了,，因?yàn)檫@讓他無法在經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷時期重新關(guān)注就業(yè)問題。為了給疲弱的經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)提供動力,，奧巴馬的團(tuán)隊(duì)提出了新的提案,，在這個過程中，奧巴馬告訴他們“不要閉門造車”,。他的意思是：不要預(yù)先設(shè)想折中方案,，以便贏得共和黨的支持，就像他們對第一次刺激方案的那種支持,。七月底,，奧巴馬總統(tǒng)與眾議院議長約翰?貝納的談判破裂后，他便一頭扎到確定新法案詳細(xì)內(nèi)容的過程當(dāng)中,。斯珀林說：“說奧巴馬總統(tǒng)有一種強(qiáng)烈的,、被壓抑的、解決就業(yè)問題的愿望,，其實(shí)還是低估他了,。其實(shí)，他已經(jīng)徹底爆發(fā)了,?！?/p>

????九月份，奧巴馬在國會聯(lián)席會議上提出了一攬子計(jì)劃,，并在美國四處游說,，希望獲得支持，但除了減少了2%的工資稅和增加失業(yè)津貼外,，國會山?jīng)]有做出其他任何讓步?，F(xiàn)在,，白宮相信，在預(yù)算談判中,，白宮的提案有機(jī)會起死回生,。

????譯者：劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

????President Obama started his first term with a bang, simultaneously engineering an auto industry rescue, stabilizing a teetering Wall Street, and negotiating a massive stimulus package to wrench the economy back from the brink. The experience may be useful if he is reelected. That's because he'll face the pileup of policy shocks known as the fiscal cliff even before he can be sworn in again.

????The looming crisis is a Beltway creation that both sides have anticipated since last year, when congressional negotiations toward a deficit-cutting accord imploded. But unlike last summer's clash over the debt ceiling, when a faction of House Republicans was willing to let the U.S. default in order to force deeper spending cuts, the administration now has the upper hand. This time around, Republicans are the petitioners, eager to avert both a tax increase on income above $250,000 and scheduled cuts to defense spending.

????And the President is looking to use the challenge as a chance to tackle long-standing problems. Obama wants to apply his leverage to accomplish three things: a sweeping deficit-reduction agreement, a major investment in infrastructure and other spending to give the economic recovery a jolt, and a simplifying rewrite of our tax code.

????"People need to understand this can be an opportunity," Gene Sperling, the President's top economic adviser, tells me as he munches vending-machine Cheerios in his cramped West Wing office. (The White House made several senior aides available for interviews, but not the President.) "Historically, major budget agreements have often taken place when everyone felt there was a fiscal gun to their heads."

????Obama's first priority will be a long-term plan for stemming the federal government's tide of red ink. The administration hopes to secure $4 trillion in deficit reduction over the next decade, in part by raising $1.5 trillion in new revenue from higher taxes on upper incomes and closing loopholes in the tax code. But exactly how the President would squeeze entitlement spending remains an open question. Obama has walked away from concessions he offered the GOP last summer, including raising the eligibility age for Medicare and ratcheting back Social Security benefits. Instead, in his most recent budget, he proposes saving on health care programs mostly by cutting payments to providers. Whatever its final shape, however, such a deal alone would give business enough confidence to unleash a wave of hiring and investment, White House economic advisers argue.

????The President will also be pushing for passage of an ambitious set of spending proposals -- based on a $447 billion package of targeted tax cuts, infrastructure spending, and aid to state and local governments dubbed the American Jobs Act -- that remains the backbone of his plan to put people back to work. When Obama unveiled the bill last September, independent economic analysts predicted it could supply up to 1.9 million jobs and add two points to the GDP. The decision to pursue it marked an inflection in his presidency -- the moment he abandoned a strategy of accommodation in favor of what he viewed as a clarifying confrontation with Republicans.

????Obama had spent the previous summer tangling with the GOP over its austerity agenda. It was frustrating for the President, aides say. He felt diminished by the grinding talks toward a debt agreement because they prevented him from getting back on a jobs message as the economy stumbled. As his team worked behind the scenes crafting new proposals to prop up the flagging recovery, Obama told them not to "self-edit." The message: Don't pre-negotiate compromises to entice Republican support, as they had on the first stimulus. When the President's talks with House Speaker John Boehner finally fell apart in late July, he dived into the process of finalizing the details of the new bill. "The notion that the President had a heavy pent-up demand to get out there on jobs was an understatement. He was fired up," Sperling says.

????Obama unveiled the package to a joint session of Congress in September, then barnstormed the country in support of it, but aside from extensions of the 2% payroll tax cut and unemployment benefits, it didn't budge on Capitol Hill. The White House now believes it will have a chance to revive his proposals in the budget negotiations.