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奢侈品市場(chǎng)浮華褪色

奢侈品市場(chǎng)浮華褪色

Nin-Hai Tseng 2012-07-17
在歐債危機(jī)和中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展放緩的雙重影響下,,全球奢侈品市場(chǎng)一派低迷,。但全球奢侈品牌并沒(méi)有喪失對(duì)亞洲,、尤其是中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的長(zhǎng)期信心,。

????過(guò)去兩年,,路易威登(Louis Vutton)皮包、迪奧(Dior)香水等奢侈品的銷(xiāo)售一直是全球零售業(yè)中為數(shù)不多的亮點(diǎn),。然而越來(lái)越多的跡象顯示,,即便最具彈性的消費(fèi)者,可能也無(wú)法承受愈演愈烈的歐債危機(jī)和中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩所造成的影響,。

????上周三,,英國(guó)奢侈時(shí)裝商店巴寶莉集團(tuán)(Burberry Group Plc)在奢侈品市場(chǎng)首先出現(xiàn)下跌。之前,,該公司公布的第一財(cái)季銷(xiāo)售額增長(zhǎng)了11%,,達(dá)到6.34億美元,低于13%的增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期,。雖然這算不上災(zāi)難性的業(yè)績(jī),,而且巴寶莉高管也表示,公司認(rèn)為中國(guó)市場(chǎng)仍存在“巨大的商機(jī)”,,但這都無(wú)法緩解奢侈品市場(chǎng)的緊張情緒,。

????一些分析師和投資者擔(dān)心,這標(biāo)志著高端零售市場(chǎng)拐點(diǎn)的到來(lái),。在巴寶莉集團(tuán)公布業(yè)績(jī)的同一天,,歷峰集團(tuán)(Compagnie Financiere Richemont SA)旗下的卡地亞(Cartier)表示,中國(guó)市場(chǎng)對(duì)高端手表的需求正在減弱,??ǖ貋喪歉叨耸直砼c珠寶品牌,中國(guó)市場(chǎng)一直是其豪華表暢銷(xiāo)的主要?jiǎng)恿Α?/p>

????上周三,,卡地亞CEO伯納德?福納斯稱(chēng):“去年,,我們?nèi)〉昧朔欠驳某煽?jī),但今年中國(guó)大陸市場(chǎng)的需求有所放緩,?!碑?dāng)日,伯納德?福納斯發(fā)布了使用能源更少的最新款概念手表ID Two,。不過(guò),,福納斯與巴寶莉集團(tuán)對(duì)中國(guó)消費(fèi)者的長(zhǎng)期前景并不擔(dān)心。

????他說(shuō):“通過(guò)與中國(guó)消費(fèi)者交流,你會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn),,人們都在期待新領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人上臺(tái),。屆時(shí),中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)將被注入更多資金,,利率也會(huì)降低,。”

????但這一點(diǎn)仍需時(shí)間來(lái)證明,。經(jīng)濟(jì)大蕭條后的幾年,,隨著股市上漲,,美國(guó)市場(chǎng)對(duì)奢侈品的需求激增,。對(duì)于有錢(qián)人來(lái)說(shuō),豪華與奢侈不是空中樓閣,,牛市行情提高了富人的消費(fèi)信心,。但股市上漲不足以維持消費(fèi)者對(duì)奢侈品的胃口,于是,,過(guò)去幾個(gè)月,,奢侈品銷(xiāo)量普遍呈現(xiàn)放緩趨勢(shì)。

????萬(wàn)事達(dá)卡顧問(wèn)公司(MasterCard Advisors )旗下的數(shù)據(jù)研究機(jī)構(gòu),、主要跟蹤信用卡,、現(xiàn)金與支票交易的SpendingPulse5月份報(bào)告稱(chēng),今年4月,,除珠寶以外,,其他奢侈品銷(xiāo)售額同比增長(zhǎng)了1.8%,低于第一季度6.7%的同比增速和第四季度13%的同比增速,。雖然奢侈品消費(fèi)近期出現(xiàn)反彈,,但SpendingPulse副總裁邁克爾?麥克納馬拉認(rèn)為,今年奢侈品市場(chǎng)很難重現(xiàn)2011年的輝煌,。

????其中,,高端珠寶行業(yè)尤為脆弱。蒂芬妮(Tiffany & Co.)公布的第一財(cái)季利潤(rùn)低于預(yù)計(jì),,并在5月份調(diào)低了全財(cái)年銷(xiāo)售額與利潤(rùn)目標(biāo),。公司將此歸因于幾個(gè)因素,其中就包括對(duì)華爾街裁員以及亞洲需求減弱的擔(dān)憂(yōu),。亞洲一直是全球奢侈品最為重要的市場(chǎng),。

????金融服務(wù)公司Stifel Financial執(zhí)行董事戴維?施伊克表示,隨著亞洲與歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩,,需求減弱的情況將蔓延到全球奢侈品市場(chǎng),。他:“它將影響高收入消費(fèi)者的信心。”

????中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩已經(jīng)給香港零售業(yè)帶來(lái)了巨大壓力,。曾幾何時(shí),,大陸消費(fèi)者在香港排長(zhǎng)隊(duì)搶購(gòu)奢侈品。然而,,5月份,,香港奢侈品銷(xiāo)售額同比增長(zhǎng)8.8%至46億美元,為2009年9月以來(lái)增速最慢的一個(gè)月,。

????鉆石恒久遠(yuǎn),,但鉆石需求的周期卻難以預(yù)料。

????譯者:劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

????For the past two years, sales of Louis Vutton bags, Dior perfume and the like have been one of the few bright spots in retailing. But momentum in the world of all that's luxurious has begun to wane some, as evidence builds that even the most resilient consumers might not be able to avoid implications of Europe's ongoing debt crisis combined with a slower growing Chinese economy.

????On Wednesday, British luxury fashion house Burberry Group Plc led luxury-goods stocks lower after reporting sales that missed analysts' estimates. Sales for the first quarter rose 11% to $634 million, short of expectations for a 13% gain. Although the results weren't considered anywhere near disastrous, and a Burberry executive said the company continued to see "an enormous amount of opportunity" in China, it didn't exactly ease jittery markets.

????Some analysts and investors fear this is just the beginning of slowing high-end sales. Burberry's results came the same day Cartier, the luxury watch and jewelry brand owned by Compagnie Financiere Richemont SA, said it is seeing less appetite for its high-end watches in China, a key driver behind the recent boom in luxury watches.

????"After a phenomenal year last year, there's been a bit of a slowdown in mainland China," said Cartier CEO Bernard Fornas, at the company's factory Wednesday as he unveiled its latest innovation, a concept watch, called the ID Two, that uses less energy. Similar to Burberry, Fornas isn't worried about Chinese consumers in the long-run.

????"When you talk to the people over there, they are all waiting for a new president to come in," he added. "That will fuel the economy with fresh money and lower interest rates."

????But that remains to be seen. In the years following the Great Recession, demand for all things luxury in the U.S. surged in tandem with gains in the stock market. For those who could afford it, posh and extravagance wasn't altogether impractical, as rallies in the equities market made affluent consumers more confident about spending. But that hasn't been enough to sustain appetites for life's finer things, as luxury sales have generally slowed down for the past several months.

????In May, MasterCard Advisors SpendingPulse reported that luxury sales, excluding jewelry, climbed 1.8% in April from a year earlier, after gaining 6.7% in the first quarter and 13% in the fourth quarter. Although spending on luxury has bumped up some recently, Michael McNamara, vice president of SpendingPulse, which tracks credit card, cash and check transactions, said robust sales seen in 2011 will be difficult to repeat this year.

????High-end jewlers have been particularly vulnerable. In May, Tiffany & Co. (TIF) cut its fiscal year sales and profit forecast after reporting lower-than-expected first quarter earnings. This was driven by several factors, including concerns about Wall Street layoffs and cooling demand from Asia, a big contributor to the global luxury market.

????David Schick, managing director at Stifel Financial, said he expects that softer sentiments for luxury will carry over globally as economic growth across Asia and Europe slow. "That's going to damage higher income consumer sentiment," he says.

????China's slowing economy has already put pressure on retail sales in Hong Kong, where many Mainland Chinese stand in lines stretched down several city blocks to shop for luxury brands.Sales rose 8.8% in May from a year earlier to $4.6 billion, the smallest gain since September 2009.

????A diamond may be forever, but demand for it has a much less certain lifetime.

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