????對(duì)于CDS市場(chǎng)的支持者而言,，最好的問(wèn)題是這些合約何時(shí)起過(guò)作用,。AIG出售的CDS合約得以履約，全靠山姆大叔,。你甚至都不能指望救助,。當(dāng)希臘“自愿”被歐洲其他國(guó)家救助時(shí)，該國(guó)國(guó)債減值50%,。主導(dǎo)CDS市場(chǎng)的機(jī)構(gòu)決定,，CDS持有人不能獲得他們購(gòu)買的保險(xiǎn)。CDS不覆蓋自愿救助,，就好像希臘還有其他選擇,。這是這個(gè)千瘡百孔市場(chǎng)的另一個(gè)漏洞。

????而且,，不清楚在多德-弗蘭克法案（Dodd-Frank）下這會(huì)不會(huì)改變,。多德-弗蘭克法案規(guī)定,，大多數(shù)CDS交易將必須經(jīng)過(guò)一家清算所。但其他投資者保護(hù)意在消除股市和債市中的操縱和欺詐行為,，CDS并不適用,。

????美國(guó)公共電視網(wǎng)（PBS）《前線》欄目（Frontline）最近播出了四集金融危機(jī)紀(jì)錄片，在一開(kāi)始就花了很多篇幅談?wù)揅DS市場(chǎng)及其源起,。CDS合約最先由摩根大通創(chuàng)立,。《前線》采訪了當(dāng)年很多參與其中的摩根大通銀行家,。似乎是說(shuō)摩根大通能避開(kāi)這場(chǎng)金融危機(jī)的很多雷區(qū)，是因?yàn)樗雷约涸谧鍪裁?。但?dāng)其他不那么負(fù)責(zé)和不那么聰明的銀行家開(kāi)始進(jìn)入這個(gè)市場(chǎng),，CDS開(kāi)始變得危險(xiǎn)。事實(shí)是如今摩根大通被CDS重傷,，這可以作為金融“創(chuàng)新”章節(jié)再合適不過(guò)的結(jié)尾,，也是為何CDS可以休矣的一個(gè)再好不過(guò)的例子。

????譯者：早稻米

????The best question for proponents of the CDS market is when have the contracts actually worked. The CDS contracts sold by AIG only paid out because of Uncle Sam. And you can't even count on bailouts. When Greece was "voluntarily" bailed out by the rest of Europe, the country's government bonds were written down by 50%. Yet, the group that governs the CDS market ruled that CDS holders couldn't collect on the insurance they had bought. Voluntary bailouts, as if Greece had a choice, were not covered by CDS. It was just another loophole in a Swiss cheese market.

????What's more, it's not clear any of this would change under Dodd-Frank. The new financial regulations state that most CDS trades will have to be run through a clearinghouse. But much of the other investor protections that are supposed to rid stock and bond markets of manipulation and fraud still don't apply when it comes to CDS.

????The recent four-part Frontline PBS documentary on the financial crisis starts with a long description of the CDS market and how it got started. CDS contracts were created at JPMorgan. Frontline interviewed a number of JPMorgan bankers who were there at the start. The implication was that JPMorgan, which sidestepped much of the losses of the financial crisis, knew what they were doing. But when other less responsible and intelligent bankers started getting into the market, that's when CDS got dangerous. The fact that it's now JPMorgan getting stung by the CDS market would serve as a fitting bookend for this chapter in financial "innovation," and a good example of why it should be closed.