當(dāng)供應(yīng)鏈斷裂時(shí)

????這幅景象幾乎是超現(xiàn)實(shí)主義的:位于泰國(guó)中部的一家本田汽車(Honda)制造廠,,也是東南亞最大的汽車制造廠之一,淹沒(méi)在15英尺的水下,,一輛輛锃亮的新車在水流上漂浮著,。11月份,一場(chǎng)毀滅性的洪水襲擊泰國(guó),,造成600多人死亡,,也摧毀了本田公司一些主要供貨商,其中包括電子元件制造商羅門哈斯公司(Rohm & Co.),,導(dǎo)致許多工廠生產(chǎn)延誤,,連遙遠(yuǎn)的俄亥俄州也受到波及。 ????僅僅一場(chǎng)泰國(guó)洪災(zāi)就足以考驗(yàn)任何一家公司的運(yùn)營(yíng)能力,;現(xiàn)在我們不妨再來(lái)看看3月份發(fā)生在日本的地震和海嘯,。這場(chǎng)災(zāi)難撕裂了日本中北部、導(dǎo)致數(shù)十家承包商和分包商被迫關(guān)停,。這些商家供應(yīng)的貨物包羅萬(wàn)象,,從玻璃到測(cè)試部件,無(wú)所不包,。直到今天,,汽車業(yè)的相當(dāng)一部分和大量技術(shù)公司仍然沒(méi)有從這場(chǎng)災(zāi)難中完全恢復(fù)過(guò)來(lái)。 ????亞洲的雙重悲劇已經(jīng)將那些通常默默無(wú)聞,、但極其重要的利基公司置于聚光燈之下,。每臺(tái)MacBook筆記本,每輛普銳斯轎車(Prius)都包含由這些公司提供的產(chǎn)品和部件。精益供應(yīng)鏈由豐田汽車公司(Toyota Motor Corp.)首創(chuàng),,在全球化時(shí)代日臻完善,。它完全實(shí)現(xiàn)了生產(chǎn)制造的去中心化:大型制造商打造出一個(gè)由專業(yè)廠商構(gòu)成的跨國(guó)網(wǎng)絡(luò),為其提供零部件,,并確保這些零部件在被需要的那一刻抵達(dá)裝配廠,。一切按計(jì)劃進(jìn)行時(shí),這一體系將惠及供應(yīng)鏈上的每一位參與者:裝配廠變得更富效率(再也不必管理惹人生厭的庫(kù)存),;供應(yīng)商將工廠設(shè)在廉價(jià)勞動(dòng)力充沛的地區(qū),,由此壓低了部件的成本;消費(fèi)者則可以享用到價(jià)格更低廉的產(chǎn)品,。 ????但諸如地震和海嘯這樣的自然災(zāi)害揭示出,,這個(gè)精心打造的生態(tài)體系其實(shí)有多么脆弱。正如著名的供應(yīng)鏈咨詢師鮑勃?法拉利所言:“沒(méi)有哪個(gè)人愿意聽(tīng)到跨國(guó)公司供應(yīng)鏈運(yùn)營(yíng)商傳來(lái)的消息,。果真如此的話,,那往往就意味著一定發(fā)生了非常糟糕的事情?!?/p> ????保險(xiǎn)商和公司依然在計(jì)算著災(zāi)難帶來(lái)的直接損失,。據(jù)大型保險(xiǎn)商慕尼黑再保險(xiǎn)公司(Munich Re)估算,僅2011年頭9個(gè)月,,日本的地震和海嘯造成的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失就高達(dá)2,100億美元,;泰國(guó)的保險(xiǎn)業(yè)監(jiān)理專員估計(jì),迄今為止,,泰國(guó)的洪災(zāi)已造成大約300億美元的損失。 ????由于供應(yīng)鏈環(huán)環(huán)相扣,,這些災(zāi)難對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響將遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超出亞洲范疇,,而且還會(huì)延續(xù)數(shù)月之久。在泰國(guó)設(shè)有兩家工廠的計(jì)算機(jī)硬盤驅(qū)動(dòng)器制造商希捷科技公司(Seagate)預(yù)計(jì),,洪災(zāi)對(duì)其客戶(希捷公司為個(gè)人電腦和服務(wù)器制造商供應(yīng)硬盤驅(qū)動(dòng)器)的影響將延續(xù)至2012年年末,。該公司CEO史蒂夫?盧卡佐表示,2013年之前,,這一行業(yè)不會(huì)“恢復(fù)正?!薄J袌?chǎng)研究機(jī)構(gòu)iSuppli公司指出,,計(jì)算機(jī)產(chǎn)業(yè)需要1.75億個(gè)硬盤驅(qū)動(dòng)器,,但供應(yīng)商只能供應(yīng)1.25億個(gè),也就是說(shuō),,供需缺口高達(dá)29%,。一些公司已經(jīng)通知投資者,這場(chǎng)洪災(zāi)預(yù)計(jì)將對(duì)其未來(lái)收益產(chǎn)生不利影響,其中就包括蘋果(Apple)和惠普(Hewlett-Packard)公司,,英特爾公司(Intel)最近也發(fā)表了類似的聲明,。 |
???The image to the right is almost surreal: It shows part of a Honda auto factory in central Thailand, one of the largest in Southeast Asia, swamped under 15 feet of water, brand-new cars floating in the currents. The devastating November flooding in Thailand, which killed more than 600 people, also knocked out some of Honda's key suppliers, including electronics component maker Rohm & Co., forcing production delays in plants as far away as Ohio. ????The Thailand floods alone would test any company's operational prowess; now consider that much of the auto industry and many technology companies are still recovering from the earthquake and tsunami that tore through north-central Japan in March, shutting down dozens of contractors and subcontractors that supply everything from glass to test parts. ????The twin tragedies in Asia have shone a spotlight on the often anonymous but incredibly important niche companies whose products and parts go into every MacBook or Prius. Invented by Toyota Motor Corp., (TM) and perfected in the era of globalization, the lean supply chain completely decentralized manufacturing: Big manufacturers developed a multinational network of specialists to supply them with parts and to make sure those components arrived at assembly plants at the moment they were needed. When things go as planned, the system benefits everyone in the chain: The assembly plant is more efficient (no pesky inventories to manage), suppliers keep the cost of parts down by locating in regions with cheap labor, and consumers enjoy lower prices. ????But natural disasters such as the earthquake and tsunami reveal just how fragile this carefully crafted ecosystem can be. As Bob Ferrari, a leading supply-chain consultant, puts it: "You never want to hear about the guys who run the supply chains for multinational companies. When you do, usually it means something really bad has happened." ????Insurers and companies are still calculating the direct costs of the devastation. Munich Re, the big insurer, pegs the economic cost of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan at $210 billion for the first nine months of 2011 alone. Thailand's insurance commissioner estimates some $30 billion in losses from flooding in his country to date. ????Because of the interconnected nature of supply chains, the economic impact of these disasters will be felt well beyond Asia -- and for many months to come. Computer hard-drive maker Seagate (STX), which operates two factories in Thailand, predicts disruptions to its customers (Seagate supplies hard drives to makers of PCs and servers) through 2012, and CEO Stephen J. Luczo says the industry won't "be back to normal" until 2013. iSuppli, a market research firm, says the computer industry is in need of 175 million hard drives but suppliers can deliver only 125 million units -- a shortfall of 29%. Apple (AAPL), Hewlett-Packard, (HPQ) and most recently Intel (INTC) are among the companies that have told investors that the flooding will have an impact on future earnings. |