????本周,，兩宗大型技術(shù)并購(gòu)浮出水面：谷歌（GOOG）宣布將以125億美元收購(gòu)摩托羅拉移動(dòng)（Motorola Mobility, MMI）,，而惠普（Hewlett-Packard）將以103億美元收購(gòu)軟件公司Autonomy (AUTNF)。

????一家對(duì)收購(gòu)信心十足,，而另一家則不然,。

????大家可能會(huì)認(rèn)為：信心十足的是谷歌。谷歌正大舉進(jìn)軍消費(fèi)級(jí)硬件市場(chǎng),，但惠普卻反其道而行之,。從戰(zhàn)略角度考慮,，這可能是正確的。但是從并購(gòu)角度來看,，結(jié)論卻截然相反,。

????如果收購(gòu)流產(chǎn)，谷歌同意支付摩托羅拉移動(dòng)25億美元的賠償金,，占收購(gòu)總額的整整20%,。該額度僅次于美國(guó)電話電報(bào)公司AT&T (T) 以390億美元收購(gòu)T-Mobile時(shí)同意支付的30億美元賠償金（后者絕對(duì)金額更高，但所占比例更?。?。更重要的是，在監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)的眼中,，此舉也意味著谷歌正逐步演變成為另一個(gè)微軟（Microsoft），因此即便是細(xì)微的舉動(dòng)也會(huì)遭到嚴(yán)格的審查,。

????另一方面,，惠普上周五早間對(duì)外界公布其收購(gòu)Autonomy的賠償金只有1.16億美元，僅占總收購(gòu)額的1%,。換句話來說,，阻礙惠普成功并購(gòu)的因素并不多。相比摩托羅拉移動(dòng)與谷歌,， Autonomy公司與惠普目前的業(yè)務(wù)顯然更加合拍,，但沒人會(huì)擔(dān)心惠普會(huì)形成市場(chǎng)壟斷。

????值得一提的是,，史蒂夫?大衛(wèi)杜夫（并購(gòu)交易專家——譯注）曾率先提出一個(gè)相反的論點(diǎn),。他認(rèn)為，谷歌對(duì)于收購(gòu)極度自信,，它希望這種一擲千金的做法能讓監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)感受到公司的這種信心,。如同撲克牌中的孤注一擲。

????這也不失為一個(gè)好觀點(diǎn),，但是我認(rèn)為,，就目前的局勢(shì)來看，這一想法過于夸張,。確實(shí),，監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)此前還沒有過任何否決谷歌并購(gòu)的先例——包括最近谷歌對(duì)ITA軟件公司的收購(gòu)——但是很明顯，谷歌這次可能會(huì)為此支付一筆可觀的學(xué)費(fèi),。其結(jié)果是要么按約定的價(jià)格收購(gòu),，要么支付賠償金，甚至可能落得個(gè)賠了夫人又折兵的下場(chǎng),。

????如果這兩宗并購(gòu)案中有任何一筆以失敗告終,，我都會(huì)非常震驚,。但若猜得不錯(cuò)，從分手費(fèi)額度來看,，HP-Autonomy聯(lián)姻的勝率要比谷歌-摩托羅拉移動(dòng)聯(lián)姻的勝率更高,。

????We've had two giant tech mergers announced this week: Google (GOOG) agreeing to buy Motorola Mobility (MMI) for $12.5 billion, and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) agreeing to buy Autonomy (AUTNF) for around $10.3 billion.

????One of these deals exudes confidence. The other does not.

????I know what you're probably thinking: Google is the confident one. It's making a huge move into the consumer hardware space, while HP is going in the opposite direction. And, from a strategic perspective, that's probably accurate. From an M&A perspective, however, it's the other way around.

????Google has agreed to pay Motorola Mobility a $2.5 billion break-up fee if the deal falters. That's a whopping 20% of the purchase price, and is the largest known breakup fee outside of the $3 billion AT&T (T) would be required to pay T-Mobile were that $39 billion transaction not to close (larger in dollars, but far smaller in terms of percentage). More importantly, it's a reflection that Google has become Microsoft in the eyes of regulators, and even a horizontal move will receive significant scrutiny.

????HP, on the other hand, revealed this morning that its break-up fee with Autonomy is just around $116 million, or 1% of the total transaction price. In other words, there are few concerns that the deal won't be able to close. an HP monopoly is not on anyone's radar, even though Autonomy seems to be more in line with HP's existing business than Motorola Mobility is with Google's.

????It's also worth pointing out a counter-argument, first proposed by Steven Davidoff. He posits that Google is extremely confident, and that it is using the out-sized break-up fee as a way to relay that confidence to regulators. Kind of like going all-in on a poker hand.

????It's a nice turn of the brain, but I think it's a way to over-think the obvious. It's true that Google has not yet had an acquisition stopped by regulators -- including its recent ITA Software purchase -- but clearly it now must pay a premium for the possibility. Either you do that on deal size or on breakup fees. Or both.

????I'd be very surprised if either deal didn't close. But if I were an odds-maker, the breakup fees suggest that Google-Motorola is lower on the board than HP-Autonomy.