房?jī)r(jià)正在飆升的10個(gè)地方
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香港 ????中國(guó)內(nèi)地的巨富們正在一窩蜂地?fù)硐蛳愀?。這并非由于香港是世界商業(yè)和貿(mào)易中心，而是由于香港擁有世界最受歡迎房地產(chǎn),。 ????由于香港只有426平方英里,，人多地少，因此需求相對(duì)較大,，而供給緊張 ,。這就解釋了為什么去年香港的房?jī)r(jià)要比世界其他國(guó)家和地區(qū)增長(zhǎng)得更快。這也使購(gòu)買這些昂貴住房的借貸成本降到了創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的新低,。自從2008年12月以來(lái),，香港的基準(zhǔn)利率一直在20年來(lái)最低的0.5%左右徘徊。 ????但為了抗擊通脹,，香港政府一直在試圖給房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)降溫,。去年11月，官方采取了最嚴(yán)厲的調(diào)控房市的舉措,，對(duì)兩年之內(nèi)被轉(zhuǎn)售的房地產(chǎn)加征了最高15%的交易附加費(fèi),，并且提高了高端地產(chǎn)交易的首付限額。 拉脫維亞 ????想成為歐盟的居民嗎,？那就在這個(gè)波羅的海小國(guó)買套房子吧,。 ????在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)期間，拉脫維亞的房?jī)r(jià)是全世界跌幅最大的,，達(dá)到了令人難以置信的70%,。不過(guò)現(xiàn)在該國(guó)的房?jī)r(jià)已經(jīng)有了很大的反彈,，這在一定程度上要?dú)w功于拉脫維亞2010年7月通過(guò)的一項(xiàng)新法案。該法案規(guī)定,，如果非歐盟公民購(gòu)買了價(jià)值70000歐元（約為93000美元）以上的房地產(chǎn),，或者在該國(guó)投資經(jīng)商，就可以獲得歐盟居留權(quán),。 ????這個(gè)法案并不意味著在拉脫維亞買了房的外國(guó)投資者可以在歐洲其他國(guó)家工作,。不過(guò)這些房主卻可以自由往來(lái)歐盟的申根（Schengen）地區(qū)。申根地區(qū)包括了德國(guó)和希臘等25個(gè)歐盟成員國(guó),。 以色列 ????別去美國(guó)南塔基特島了,，去以色列度假吧。 ????以色列已經(jīng)成了世界最熱門的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)之一,。從特拉維夫海灘的高樓大廈,，到耶路撒冷市中心，以色列的房地產(chǎn)需求在很大程度上是由從北非和歐洲來(lái)此度假的猶太人帶動(dòng)起來(lái)的,。和其他增長(zhǎng)強(qiáng)勁的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)一樣,，以色列的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)也是由于房產(chǎn)供給的短缺和利率的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄新低而被炒得火熱。 ????到目前為止,，以色列并未遭受像美國(guó)和歐洲部分國(guó)家那樣的房地產(chǎn)崩盤,，這主要是由于在2008年之前，以色列未曾經(jīng)歷過(guò)信貸激增,。但這并不表示以色列政府不擔(dān)心房地產(chǎn)崩盤的可能,。以色列政府一直在試圖通過(guò)提高借貸成本、對(duì)某些貸款施加更嚴(yán)格的控制等方式,，引導(dǎo)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)實(shí)現(xiàn)軟著陸,。 中國(guó) ????想找個(gè)地方儲(chǔ)存你的財(cái)富，甚至賺到不錯(cuò)的利潤(rùn)嗎,？ ????成百上千萬(wàn)的中國(guó)人正在拼命買房,，美國(guó)購(gòu)買者也一度出現(xiàn)過(guò)這樣的熱情。對(duì)于許多中國(guó)中產(chǎn)階層來(lái)說(shuō),，擺在面前的投資渠道不多,，相比之下，購(gòu)買住房就成了儲(chǔ)存財(cái)富的一個(gè)較好的選擇,。雖然2008年的金融危機(jī)讓許多國(guó)家深受打擊,，但中國(guó)的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)事實(shí)上幾乎未受影響。 ????不過(guò)現(xiàn)在可以說(shuō)中國(guó)的房?jī)r(jià)已經(jīng)達(dá)到了泡沫的范疇,，中國(guó)政府一直對(duì)此保持高度警惕,。從提高二套房的最低首付額，到今年上海和重慶開(kāi)征房產(chǎn)稅，官方密集出手冷卻市場(chǎng),。雖然中國(guó)央行今年已經(jīng)兩次大幅加息,，并提高了購(gòu)買多套住房者的抵押貸款利率，但房?jī)r(jià)何去何從仍然有待觀察——究竟是軟著陸,，還是災(zāi)難性的崩盤,，抑或是二者之間的某種可能？ 新加坡 ????這個(gè)東南亞小國(guó)在2008至2009年間也遭受了全球經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的打擊,，但由于新加坡政府通過(guò)經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激方案,，為經(jīng)濟(jì)注入大量資本，因而該國(guó)1820億美元的國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)得以相對(duì)較快地復(fù)蘇,。 ????不僅商業(yè)和貿(mào)易重新反彈,，房?jī)r(jià)也再度飆升到了令人警惕的高度。官方擔(dān)憂房?jī)r(jià)已經(jīng)漲得太高了,。政府一直在試圖控制投機(jī)性交易,。今年早些時(shí)候，新加坡提高了第二套房按揭的首付要求,，并且延長(zhǎng)了房主為免付銷售稅所需持有房產(chǎn)的時(shí)間。 奧地利 ????全球金融危機(jī)期間,，奧地利這一文化與金融熱點(diǎn)國(guó)家也沒(méi)能逃過(guò)一劫,。不過(guò)到2010年，奧地利經(jīng)濟(jì)相對(duì)來(lái)說(shuō)反彈較快,。奧地利的失業(yè)率只有4.8%,，比起歐洲部分國(guó)家的就業(yè)市場(chǎng)要樂(lè)觀得多。 ????房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)是總體經(jīng)濟(jì)的反映,，奧地利的房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格也出現(xiàn)了反彈,，這要部分歸功于機(jī)構(gòu)投資人的需求。 法國(guó) ????巴黎一直因時(shí)尚,、美食和全民醫(yī)保制度而聞名于世,。不過(guò)不要忘了，巴黎也有一些全世界最昂貴的房地產(chǎn),。 ????法國(guó)的房?jī)r(jià)已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了激增,，這在很大程度上要?dú)w功于超低的利率和巴黎繁榮的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)。據(jù)法國(guó)不動(dòng)產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)人及銷售代理人聯(lián)合會(huì)（FNAIM）指出,，盡管2010年法國(guó)各地的平均房?jī)r(jià)只上漲了1.5%,，但巴黎地區(qū)的房?jī)r(jià)卻飆升了15.7%。 ????不過(guò)房?jī)r(jià)可能在未來(lái)有所軟化,。上個(gè)月,，法國(guó)央行行長(zhǎng)克里斯蒂安?諾耶爾警告道，隨著歐元區(qū)的利率升高,，使借貸成本變得更高,，法國(guó)房?jī)r(jià)可能難免遭到調(diào)整 ,。 印度 ????在這個(gè)迅速增長(zhǎng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)體中，似乎永遠(yuǎn)沒(méi)有足夠的住房能滿足印度日益增長(zhǎng)的人口的需要,。 ????印度的人均收入近年來(lái)出現(xiàn)了顯著增長(zhǎng),。而且由于住房需求超過(guò)了供給，印度的住房?jī)r(jià)格,，尤其是孟買的住房?jī)r(jià)格也出現(xiàn)了激增,。印度政府擔(dān)心房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)過(guò)熱，因此今年一月,，印度央行將基準(zhǔn)利率提高到了兩年來(lái)的最高水平,。 ????創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的高房?jī)r(jià)和高利率可能會(huì)冷卻購(gòu)房者的熱情，也可能促使開(kāi)發(fā)商削低要價(jià),。但效果究竟如何,，還有待觀察。 波蘭 ????如果說(shuō)總體GDP反映了一個(gè)國(guó)家的總體房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng),，那么波蘭的房?jī)r(jià)增長(zhǎng)也就不足為奇了,。 ????雖然波蘭總體上仍然窮于其他歐盟國(guó)家，不過(guò)在經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)期間,，波蘭是歐盟中唯一一個(gè)保持了經(jīng)濟(jì)正增長(zhǎng)的國(guó)家（波蘭于2004年加入歐盟）,。《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》（The Economist）雜志指出,，這在某種程度是種碰巧,。波蘭政府將房地產(chǎn)繁榮保持在可控水平，嚴(yán)格的監(jiān)管也限制了各大銀行的借貸,，尤其是外幣借貸,。 ????2010年，隨著住房?jī)r(jià)格的激增,，波蘭的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率比前年增長(zhǎng)了一倍多,，達(dá)到了3.8%。經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)在相當(dāng)程度上與企業(yè)重建庫(kù)存有關(guān),，不過(guò)鑒于就業(yè)和工資水平的提高,，更高的消費(fèi)者需求也是一個(gè)驅(qū)動(dòng)因素。 丹麥 ????盡管歐洲部分地區(qū)仍在為日益增長(zhǎng)的債務(wù)問(wèn)題而頭痛,，但丹麥的財(cái)政狀況仍然是歐盟國(guó)家中最強(qiáng)勁的,。 ????在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)爆發(fā)前，丹麥就經(jīng)歷了一輪房地產(chǎn)繁榮,。隨后泡沫迅速破裂,，房?jī)r(jià)在2008年和2009年間急劇下跌。 ????由于政府出臺(tái)了刺激計(jì)劃，丹麥經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了一定的恢復(fù),。與此同時(shí),，房?jī)r(jià)也出現(xiàn)了反彈。不過(guò)這種情況也許不會(huì)持續(xù)太久,。歐洲央行本月早些時(shí)候提高了利率,，這還是近三年來(lái)的首次。更高的借貸成本可能會(huì)讓一些購(gòu)房者望而卻步,。 ????本文援引價(jià)格數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)自萊坊環(huán)球房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格指數(shù)（Knight Frank Global House Price Index）,。 ????譯者：樸成奎 |
Hong Kong ????Uber-rich Mainland Chinese business owners have been flocking to Hong Kong, and it's not just because it's the world's business and trade center. It also has some of the world's most sought-after real estate. ????While demand is relatively high, supply is tight, given that this densely populated region spans only about 426 square miles. That explains why prices have risen faster than other country in the world in the past year. It also helps that borrowing costs to pay for these super-expensive homes is at record lows. Since December 2008, the base interest rate has hovered at a two-decade low of 0.5%. ????But Hong Kong's government has been trying to quiet the real estate party, as part of its ongoing effort to fight inflation. In November, officials took its toughest steps by imposing an additional transaction fee of up to 15% on properties that are resold within two years. They have also required higher down payments for high-end home purchases. Latvia ????Want to become a resident of the European Union? Just buy property in this Baltic State. ????During the global recession, Latvia saw the world's largest fall in home prices, dropping an incredible 70%. But the market has bounced back in a big way, partly driven by a fairly new law (effective July 2010) that gives EU residency rights to non-EU citizens who buy property worth at least 70,000 euros (or $93,000) or invest in a business here. ????That doesn't mean foreign investors are permitted to work in the rest of Europe. However, property owners can roam freely within Germany, Greece and 23 other countries that make up the EU's Schengen area. Israel ????Skip Nantucket. Let's vacation in Israel. ????Israel has become one of the hottest real estate markets in the world. From Tel Aviv's beachside high-rise condos to the heart of Jerusalem, much of the demand has been coming from North American and European Jews in search of vacation homes. Similar to many other robust real estate markets, Israel's housing market is fueled by a shortage of properties and record low interest rates. ????So far, Israel has dodged a housing market crash like the ones in the U.S. and parts of Europe mostly because it didn't experience the same credit booms in the years leading up to 2008. But that doesn't mean Israel's government isn't worried about it. Officials have been trying to bring the market boom to a soft landing by raising borrowing costs and putting tighter restrictions on some loans. China ????Need somewhere to store your wealth and maybe even make a healthy profit? ????Millions of Chinese have been buying up homes with the same enthusiasm once common among U.S. home buyers. With few investment options for many middle class Chinese, residential properties have become a great option to store wealth. Even while the global financial crisis in 2008 gripped many nations, China's housing market was virtually unaffected. ????But home prices have arguably reached bubble territory and China's government has been on high alert. Officials have intensified efforts to cool the market -- from raising the minimum down payment for second-home purchases to levying taxes on residences in Shanghai and Chongqing this year. Even while China's central bank hiked interest rates twice this year and raised mortgage rates for multiple home buyers, it remains to be seen where prices will go -- a soft landing, a disastrous crash or perhaps somewhere in between? Singapore ????This island country in Southeast Asia felt the pains of the 2008-2009 global recession, but its $182 billion economy bounced back relatively quickly as Singapore's government flushed the country with capital from the stimulus package. ????Not only has business and trade rebounded, but home prices have surged to the point where government officials worry that prices might be rising too much. Singapore has been trying to curb speculative buyers -- earlier this year, it raised down payment requirements for second mortgages and extended the period homeowners must hold properties to avoid a sales tax. Austria ????This cultural and financial hot spot underwent a sharp recession in 2009 during the global financial crisis. But Austria's economy bounced back relatively quickly by 2010. With unemployment at 4.8%, Austria's job market is nowhere near as grim as in some parts of Europe. ????And with the housing market as a reflection of the overall economy, home prices have rebounded, partly driven by demand from institutional investors. France ????Paris has long been known for stylish people, delicious cuisine and universal health care. And let's not forget some of the priciest real estate in the world. ????Home prices have surged in France, thanks largely to the thriving real estate market in Paris amid ultra-low interest rates. While prices across France on average rose only 1.5% in 2010, prices in the Paris area skyrocketed 15.7% according to the national residential real-estate broker's lobby FNAIM. ????But prices could soften some in the future. Last month, Bank of France Governor Christian Noyer warned prices could be in for a correction as euro area interest rates rise, making the cost of borrowing higher. India ????In this rapidly growing economy, it seems there may never be enough homes to house the expanding population. ????Incomes here have risen considerably in recent years. And home prices, especially in Mumbai, have surged as demand for residential properties outpace supply. But India's government has been worried that the market might be too hot. In January, its central bank raised the benchmark interest rate to a two-year high. ????It remains to be seen how record prices and high interest rates could discourage buyers and possibly compel developers to cut their asking price. Poland ????If overall GDP is any reflection of the overall housing market, then it may be no surprise that prices in Poland have been rising. ????During the economic downturn, it was the only country in the European Union (which it joined in 2004) that maintained positive economic growth, although the country on average was still poorer than other EU countries. As The Economist suggests, this was partly coincidental. Poland's government kept the property boom in check and banks operated under tough regulations that restrained borrowing, primarily in foreign currency. ????In 2010, as home prices surged, Poland's economic growth rate more than doubled over the previous year to 3.8%. Much of the growth had to do with companies rebuilding inventory, but it was also driven by higher consumer demand as employment and wages improved. Denmark ????Though parts of Europe are dealing with growing debt problems, Denmark's fiscal position has remained among the strongest in the European Union. ????The country experienced a housing market boom in the years leading up to the global financial crisis, but that bubble burst all too suddenly with prices dropping steeply in 2008 and 2009. ????Denmark's economy has recovered modestly, thanks partly to government stimulus. And with that, home prices have rebounded. But maybe not for long. The European Central Bank earlier this month raised interest rates for the first time in nearly three years, which could deter some homebuyers who might scoff at the thought of higher borrowing costs. ????Pricing data is from Knight Frank Global House Price Index |
